Monday, July 09, 2012

Nifty - Elliott Wave Analysis

This is a hourly chart of Nifty. We have been marking a series of 1-2/1-2 waves on the chart and were expecting a burst in prices, well we certainly broke out of the consolidation zone with a bang. But if indeed this is a third wave we must see the prices continuing its sharp journey upwards. The rally is stuttering around a crucial resistance of 5342. which is not good, if we look at the rise from the lows of 4770 at this point it looks like two sharp moves separated by a consolidation, and that cannot be good for this uptrend. So unless we turn back up soon and take another leap, this rise may turn out to be a corrective rise, and we will have to reevaluate our count. The invalidation level seems to 5170, as per my analysis. So as long as we stay above that and turn back up asap, we are good. I suggest we must have our SL just below 5170. On the daily chart we can see a crucial resistance at 5342 and support at 5170. Both STS and RSI have turned down. MACD is still in bullish territory, but as we know its a lagging indicator. So going by the leading indicators like STS and RSI, we should pause here, and the levels marked above will make it clear whether we are pausing or turning down. I suggest tighten your SL, may be book some now as we have been resisted at 5342, and wait, till 5170 is taken out.

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