Here is a monthly chart of Nifty. I have labelled it. It shows that we might be in wave [IV] on a very large degree. But in the above set of wave labels the 4th wave have been sharp and deep. So far we have not made any serious dent in the price rise achieved in wave [III]. Prices are in consolidation, also MACD is hovering around the zero level.
Prices are behaving with some strength and we have already closed above 5 WEMA, which suggests a possible trend change on weekly time frame. But looking at the above wave structure (if correct) we are supposed to correct towards the 2950 levels.
Please share your views, it will only add to our knowledge.
Hi Aniruddha,
ReplyDeleteI'm no expert but here's my take anyway:
Your count up to Blue-III is fine, which is the 2008 top. The fall into 2009 then is just A of IV. The entire rise up into 2011 is B of IV. By the looks of it, C of IV could end up making a nice flat. However, the way C is behaving, it looks like it's going to be a complex Wave IV....maybe a triangle? And within the C, we have finished (A) down, then a-up & b-down of (B) up. Currently, we are at the beginning of c-up of (B) up, which should take us to 5645, which is 61.8% of the fall from 6330 to 4530 - or - 5950, which is 78.6% of the fall. Once this ride up is over....(C) down should begin. Will (D) and (E) follow? Possible - if we were to buy Prechter's time cycle, which puts a bottom for the US markets around 2016!
Thanks for your comments. We right now there are many possibilities, some of them mentioned by you, of a possible flat correction in wave (IV), or a triangle, and we cannot rule out any of them just as yet. My analysis was based on a combined study of prices indicators and EWP. But since it is a very large degree we are talking about anything can happen. There is only one thing I would like to add though, you can see that on the above chart both the second waves are drawn out whereas fourth wave has been sharp, hence I am expecting a sharp wave C down once we complete the 3 wave up move which we are currently in. Anyways these long term counts cannot have much bearing on our short term trading, in the short term I look t go against any 3 wave move to catch the next impulse wave.
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