Friday, June 29, 2012

Nifty - Elliott Wave Analysis

EWP is about pattern recognition, and picking up small small signs which helps us in identifying the strength of the market trends. We have been stressing the importance of the levels 5135 - 5172 as important resistances to a sustained up move on the medium to short term in our previous posts. And looking at today's break out, we can see no price action below 5172, whereas yesterdays whole price range was below 5172. I feel that's a good break out, and the fat that it has occurred when we were expecting the wave III to start, gives it additional zing!
So now it seems we are on our way to wave II and one would now require all the will power to whether out the minor pullbacks till the full potential of this wave III is achieved. Its a happy circumstance, EWP tells us when to show courage and sit tight, and when to grab our money and run!

12 comments:

  1. So anirudhha, what is your tgt for all the 5 waves of C?

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  2. Thank you for showing interest in this blog. I cant thank you personally as I don't know your name.
    Still, I have made it clear in my earlier posts that we are in an {A}-{B}-{C} type of corrective pattern, and the minimum we can scale is the the level of top of wave {A} at 5630, and most likely target would be when wave {C}=={A} which should be in the range of 5900 - 5800, contained by the channel drawn on the chart above. But I wouldn't be surprised if we go all the way to the top of 6338, as of now though I am not too keen on this last possibility.
    Regards
    Aniruddha

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  3. hello sir,
    according to me, nifty is still in wave {B} and i think wave {B} is looking like a double/triple threes pattern with wave W and wave X have been completed. I think nifty is in wave Y of which sub-wave A has been completed taking nifty to 4770 and currently nifty is in sub-wave B of wave Y of wave {B}.

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    Replies
    1. What is ur target for wave B of Y of {B}. Also what is ur target for wave {B}. And of course thanks for your comments.

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    2. thank you for your reply. according to me sub-wave B of wave Y has reached it's target and should not go above 5300. This will lead to sub-wave C of wave Y which should take it back to 4800 or lower which would complete wave {B} unless it is triple three pattern. But if nifty breaks above 5400 then your approach looks correct.

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    3. If my count is correct then we have to atleast cross 5630 and prefferably 5800 - 5900 range.

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  4. sorry, sub-wave B of wave Y should have a target of maximum 5400 and not 5300 as mentioned in earlier post.

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  5. i am also following the S&P 500 which according to me has a short term target of 1380 and then a decline to 1200 or lower. hence, i think nifty is also headed towards 4800 or lower levels after hitting 5400

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  6. also can you enlighten me about the type of sub-wave B of wave {B} in your chart?

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    Replies
    1. Well I am counting a triangle in wave B of {B}. Its a continuation pattern in EWP and precedes the last wave of the pattern of one higher fractal.

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    2. if sub-wave B of wave {B} is a triangle then should each sub-wave of the triangle be divided in 3 smaller waves? for example sub-wave 3 of the triangle is not composed of 3 wave pattern.

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    3. I use ewp to get a grip on broader scheme of things. There are many possibilities playing out simultaneously in the markets we should select the one which gives us clear trading action with least risk and maximum reward.

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